The revenue forecast is the rolling prediction of the coming days and weeks — built from reservations, prior-year figures, events and weather. It is the link between sales and costs: the expected revenue drives the rota, order quantities and mise-en-place amounts. Operations without a forecast staff by gut feeling — and pay for it either with idle overtime or chaos at peak.
Enter the reservation picture — expected revenue and recommended service hours appear instantly.
Target productivity (revenue per deployed service hour) is your steering lever: derive it from POS and time-tracking data of recent months — good operations run at €80–120 depending on concept. Plan the kitchen analogously via dishes per kitchen hour.
| Building block | Source | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Reservations | Reservation system/PMS — "on the books" | The foundation: what is already certain |
| Experience patterns | POS data: same weekday, prior year, season | Walk-in share and check per day type |
| Events | Trade fairs, holidays, home games, local events | The big swings up AND down |
| Weather | 7-day outlook | Terrace ±30% is not unusual |
±10% on a weekly view is entirely sufficient for rota and purchasing — it is about the right order of magnitude of decisions, not prophecy. Systematic deviations (always too optimistic?) matter more than single outliers.
Yes — then POS data carries the prediction: the same weekday of the last 8 weeks plus season/weather/event corrections. The patterns are more stable than most believe.
There it is standard in revenue management (yield management) — the F&B forecast complements it: house occupancy and breakfast ratio drive F&B planning, departures the housekeeping workload.